Prediction: The politics of exhaustion will play out between now and the new Brexit deadline of October 31, and people will give up on this whole sordid affair. The U.K. will never leave the European Union.
The market prefers having more time to convince a majority in Parliament that Theresa May’s deal with the EU is the way to go. It’s less immediate stress on the economy and the British pound than a hard Brexit. But the lack of conditions in granting the extension has weakened the incentives for the U.K. parliament to find a resolution. They can kick the can down the road forever.
It is surprising that the majority of EU member states allowed for the extenstion on Wednesday. Had they not, the U.K. would have crashed out of the EU on Friday. World Trade Organization rules on tariffs would apply. But issues such as visas and the free movement of people across borders, especially between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would be unresolved.
The Conservative Party, the party which brought us Brexit in the first place through a referendum vote proposed by then-prime minister David Cameron, cannot get its act together. So now May has to turn to the Labor Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn.
This brings us to Season III of Brexit Forever, which raises the story question: Will May and Corbyn honor the will of the voter?
Over a million more people voted in favor of leaving the European Union than staying. Nearly every poll indicates that there’s still support for sticking with that original decision, though Labor party voters are less inclined to leave. May has to break bread with a party that has a large constituent of voters who do not want to leave the EU. Good luck with that, Prime Minister. Read more